pixabay | marmax

Weather Forecasts Have Been Misleading Us With Their Rain Predictions All Along

Updated September 8, 2021

Although I certainly haven't had to leave the house as much over the past year as usual, I definitely made a habit of checking the weather each time I did.

And while it's handy to know how hot or cold it'll be and even what it'll feel like thanks to the wind chill, there's one thing I was always a little curious about.

Namely, how are they able to break the likelihood that it will rain down to a percentage? But while I tended to play the odds and pack an umbrella if that percentage seemed high enough, it turns out that those days where it poured on a low chance weren't just the result of bad luck.

On June 18, TikTok user @knowledgesaurus released a video that finally revealed to us what those percentages calculating the chances of rain actually mean.

TikTok | @knowledgesaurus

And as he put it, "If the weather says there's a 60% chance of rain, that doesn't actually mean there's a 60% chance of rain."

Instead, he added, "It usually means there's a 100% chance it's going to rain."

And while that might not sound like it makes any sense, it helps to know that the percentage isn't referring to whether the rain will fall, but where it will.

TikTok | @knowledgesaurus

As the TikToker expresses here, a 40% chance of rain takes into account the general confidence of the forecaster that rain is imminent, but has a lot more to do with how much of a given region will experience that rain.

So if there's a 40% chance of rain, you're being told that rain will fall, but it may not necessarily fall on you.

So if there's a 40% chance of rain, you're being told that rain will fall, but it may not necessarily fall on you.

You may have noticed days where the skies seem clear on one side of the city and full of dark clouds on the other side. On such days, you can pretty much see how these percentages work in action.

And if you don't feel comfortable just taking some guy on TikTok's word for it, someone else confirmed this revelation with an actual meteorologist.

Facebook | Anthony Rorie Smith

As Anthony Rorie Smith shared in a Facebook post that saw him contact a meteorologist named Doug Heady who tends to cover the weather around the Missouri-Kansas state lines.

And in it, Heady confirmed that when there's a 40% chance of rain, that rain is almost certain to hit about 40% of a given area.

So when we're weighing the odds of bringing an umbrella along, now we actually know what kind of gamble we're making.

As much as we may have liked to do this before, we can forget about betting on the possibility that it won't rain at all.

So when we're weighing the odds of bringing an umbrella along, now we actually know what kind of gamble we're making.

We can forget about betting on the possibility that it won't rain at all. Instead, we're betting that it'll hit some other part of town when we don't feel like bringing an umbrella.

I guess that makes the odds a little slimmer than we thought.

Instead, we're betting that it'll hit some other part of town when we don't feel like bringing an umbrella.

I guess that makes the odds a little slimmer than we thought. It's still up to you as to what you want to do with that information, though.

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People & Society

Weather Forecasts Have Been Misleading Us With Their Rain Predictions All Along

On June 18, TikTok user @knowledgesaurus released a video that finally revealed to us what those percentages calculating the chances of rain actually mean.

And while that might not sound like it makes any sense, it helps to know that the percentage isn't referring to whether the rain will fall, but where it will.

So if there's a 40% chance of rain, you're being told that rain will fall, but it may not necessarily fall on **you.**

And if you don't feel comfortable just taking some guy on TikTok's word for it, someone else confirmed this revelation with an actual meteorologist.

So when we're weighing the odds of bringing an umbrella along, now we actually know what kind of gamble we're making.

So when we're weighing the odds of bringing an umbrella along, now we actually know what kind of gamble we're making.

Instead, we're betting that it'll hit some other part of town when we don't feel like bringing an umbrella.

So if there's a 40% chance of rain, you're being told that rain will fall, but it may not necessarily fall on you.